Rosenborg
Fredrikstad
The model leans Fredrikstad at 35%. Expected goals: Rosenborg 1.32, Fredrikstad 1.37. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 56%. Rosenborg won 3 of their last 6; Fredrikstad won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rosenborg | 35% | 2.88 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Fredrikstad | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fredrikstad. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 38% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rosenborg 0| Rosenborg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.