Fredrikstad
Kristiansund
The model leans Fredrikstad at 51%. Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.82, Kristiansund 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Fredrikstad won 4 of their last 6; Kristiansund won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fredrikstad | 57% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.01 | – | – | – |
| 2Kristiansund | 18% | 5.66 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fredrikstad. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.82 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.8%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.5%
- 0–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fredrikstad −1| Fredrikstad line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 25% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.