Bodø/Glimt
Fredrikstad
The model leans Bodø/Glimt at 68%. Expected goals: Bodø/Glimt 3.07, Fredrikstad 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 60%. Bodø/Glimt won 5 of their last 6; Fredrikstad won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bodø/Glimt | 78% | 1.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.41 | – | – | – |
| 2Fredrikstad | 8% | 12.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bodø/Glimt. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.07 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 3–08.5%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–18.3%
- 2–18.1%
- 4–06.6%
- 4–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 64% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bodø/Glimt −2| Bodø/Glimt line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| -1 | 60% | 19% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 12% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.