Lillestrøm
Fredrikstad
The model leans Lillestrøm at 53%. Expected goals: Lillestrøm 2.22, Fredrikstad 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%. Lillestrøm won 2 of their last 6; Fredrikstad won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lillestrøm | 59% | 1.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Fredrikstad | 19% | 5.28 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lillestrøm. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.22 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–07.2%
- 3–17.2%
- 3–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lillestrøm −1| Lillestrøm line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 22% | 40% |
| -0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| 0 | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.