Fredrikstad
Lillestrøm
The model leans Lillestrøm at 41%. Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.47, Lillestrøm 1.82. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. Fredrikstad won 4 of their last 6; Lillestrøm won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fredrikstad | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Lillestrøm | 45% | 2.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lillestrøm. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.47 – 1.82| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lillestrøm −0.5| Fredrikstad line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 17% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 21% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.