Kristiansund
Molde
The model leans Molde at 50%. Expected goals: Kristiansund 0.94, Molde 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Kristiansund won 1 of their last 6; Molde won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kristiansund | 20% | 5.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Molde | 54% | 1.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Molde. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.94 – 1.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–112.1%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–210.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.1%
- 1–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Molde −0.5| Kristiansund line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 14% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 25% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.