Rosenborg
Manchester United
The model leans Manchester United at 60%. Expected goals: Rosenborg 0.89, Manchester United 2.31. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. Rosenborg won 3 of their last 6; Manchester United won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rosenborg | 12% | 8.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.10 | – | – | – |
| 2Manchester United | 68% | 1.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Manchester United. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.89 – 2.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 0–210.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–18.4%
- 0–38.3%
- 1–37.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manchester United −1.5| Rosenborg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 9% | 87% |
| -0.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| 0 | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| +0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| +1 | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| +1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.