Start
Rosenborg
The model leans Start at 37%. Expected goals: Start 1.54, Rosenborg 1.48. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 62%. Start won 2 of their last 6; Rosenborg won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Start | 38% | 2.63 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.78 | – | – | – |
| 2Rosenborg | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: Start. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.54 – 1.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Start 0| Start line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 20% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 19% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.