Vålerenga
Aalesund
The model leans Vålerenga at 50%. Expected goals: Vålerenga 2.30, Aalesund 1.75. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 75%. Vålerenga won 2 of their last 6; Aalesund won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vålerenga | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Aalesund | 29% | 3.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Vålerenga. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.30 – 1.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes74% | No26% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–17.0%
- 3–16.2%
- 1–26.1%
- 3–25.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 65% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Vålerenga −0.5| Vålerenga line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 20% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 20% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 15% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.