Brann
Vålerenga
The model leans Brann at 51%. Expected goals: Brann 2.67, Vålerenga 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 76%. Brann won 3 of their last 6; Vålerenga won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brann | 58% | 1.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Vålerenga | 23% | 4.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Brann. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.67 – 1.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 63% | 37% |
| Both teams to score | Yes76% | No24% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.7%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.5%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.8%
- 1–24.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brann −1| Brann line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 20% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 18% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 12% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.