Predictions · Eliteserien · outside model coverage

Brann

23
Lost

Vålerenga

The model leans Brann at 51%. Expected goals: Brann 2.67, Vålerenga 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 76%. Brann won 3 of their last 6; Vålerenga won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Brann58%1.72
XDraw19%5.25
2Vålerenga23%4.41

Pick: Brann. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.67 – 1.68
LineOverUnder
1.593%7%
2.581%19%
3.563%37%
Both teams to scoreYes76%No24%

Most likely scores

  • 217.7%
  • 316.9%
  • 226.5%
  • 325.8%
  • 115.8%
  • 124.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Brann −1
Brann lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.539%61%
-139%20%41%
-0.559%41%
059%18%23%
+0.577%23%
+177%12%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.