Chelsea
Real Sociedad
The model leans Chelsea at 57%. Expected goals: Chelsea 2.56, Real Sociedad 1.23. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 66%. Chelsea won 4 of their last 6; Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chelsea | 65% | 1.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Sociedad | 16% | 6.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Chelsea. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.56 – 1.23| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–06.3%
- 1–05.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chelsea −1.5| Chelsea line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 21% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 17% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 10% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.