Real Sociedad
Espanyol
The model leans Real Sociedad at 50%. Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.76, Espanyol 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 6; Espanyol won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Marcaapuestas_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Sociedad | 53% | 1.89 | 1.80 | 52% | +1 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | 3.55 | 26% | −1 |
| 2Espanyol | 21% | 4.68 | 4.25 | 22% | −1 |
Pick: Real Sociedad. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.76 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–16.3%
- 0–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Sociedad −0.5| Real Sociedad line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 23% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.