Espanyol
Levante
The model leans Espanyol at 37%. Expected goals: Espanyol 1.31, Levante 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Espanyol won 2 of their last 6; Levante won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Espanyol | 39% | 2.54 | 2.10 | 45% | −6 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | 3.30 | 29% | +1 |
| 2Levante | 31% | 3.24 | 3.70 | 26% | +5 |
Pick: Espanyol. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.31 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 2–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Espanyol 0| Espanyol line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 22% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.