Wolverhampton Wanderers
Real Sociedad
The model leans Real Sociedad at 38%. Expected goals: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.30, Real Sociedad 1.50. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 58%. Wolverhampton Wanderers won 5 of their last 6; Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wolverhampton Wanderers | 32% | 3.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Sociedad | 41% | 2.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Sociedad. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.30 – 1.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–26.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Wolverhampton Wanderers 0| Wolverhampton Wanderers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.