Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Bergisch Gladbach
0–8
Won
1. FC Köln
The model leans 1. FC Köln at 78%. Expected goals: Bergisch Gladbach 1.02, 1. FC Köln 6.00. Over 2.5 goals 97%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match96
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bergisch Gladbach | 1% | 85.47 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 3% | 39.53 | – | – | – |
| 21. FC Köln | 96% | 1.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: 1. FC Köln. Calibrated probability 78% (raw model output 96%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 99%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.02 – 6.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 99% | 1% |
| 2.5 | 97% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 90% | 10% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–57.0%
- 1–67.0%
- 0–56.9%
- 0–66.9%
- 1–76.0%
- 0–75.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 73% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: 1. FC Köln −2| Bergisch Gladbach line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -1 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| -0.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| 0 | 1% | 3% | 96% |
| +0.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| +1 | 4% | 6% | 90% |
| +1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.