Barnsley
Wigan Athletic
The model leans Barnsley at 40%. Expected goals: Barnsley 1.43, Wigan Athletic 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Barnsley won 3 of their last 6; Wigan Athletic won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barnsley | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Wigan Athletic | 28% | 3.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barnsley. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 1.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–07.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barnsley −0.5| Barnsley line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.