Wigan Athletic
Milton Keynes Dons
The model leans Milton Keynes Dons at 42%. Expected goals: Wigan Athletic 0.92, Milton Keynes Dons 1.37. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%. Wigan Athletic won 1 of their last 5; Milton Keynes Dons won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wigan Athletic | 24% | 4.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Milton Keynes Dons | 46% | 2.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 1.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.9%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.2%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Milton Keynes Dons −0.5| Wigan Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 17% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 25% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.