Accrington Stanley
Blackburn Rovers
The model leans Draw at 33%. Expected goals: Accrington Stanley 0.82, Blackburn Rovers 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 65%. Accrington Stanley won 0 of their last 6; Blackburn Rovers won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Accrington Stanley | 29% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 36% | 2.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Blackburn Rovers | 34% | 2.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: Draw. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.82 – 0.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 0–017.9%
- 0–116.1%
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Accrington Stanley 0| Accrington Stanley line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 21% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 34% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 23% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.