Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
The model leans PSV Eindhoven at 50%. Expected goals: Ajax 1.86, PSV Eindhoven 2.39. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 77%. Ajax won 5 of their last 6; PSV Eindhoven won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ajax | 30% | 3.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.83 | – | – | – |
| 2PSV Eindhoven | 50% | 2.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: PSV Eindhoven. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.86 – 2.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 61% | 39% |
| Both teams to score | Yes77% | No23% |
Most likely scores
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–16.3%
- 1–36.0%
- 2–15.9%
- 2–35.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 62%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: PSV Eindhoven −0.5| Ajax line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 15% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 19% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 19% | 31% |
| +1.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.