Schalke 04
Bayern München
The model leans Bayern München at 70%. Expected goals: Schalke 04 0.83, Bayern München 3.23. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 55%. Schalke 04 won 2 of their last 5; Bayern München won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Schalke 04 | 6% | 17.57 | 15.00 | 6% | −1 |
| XDraw | 11% | 8.71 | 7.50 | 13% | −1 |
| 2Bayern München | 83% | 1.21 | 1.17 | 81% | +2 |
Pick: Bayern München. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 83%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.83 – 3.23| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 0–39.7%–
- 0–29.0%–
- 1–38.1%–
- 0–47.9%–
- 1–27.5%–
- 1–46.5%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 66% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayern München −2| Schalke 04 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 4% | 94% |
| -0.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| 0 | 6% | 11% | 83% |
| +0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| +1 | 17% | 17% | 66% |
| +1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Schalke 04 +2.25 | 49% | 2.03 | 2.03 | 47% | +2 |
| Asian handicap | Bayern München -2.25 | 51% | 1.98 | 1.83 | 53% | −2 |
| Draw no bet | Schalke 04 | 6% | 15.56 | 13.00 | 7% | −1 |
| Draw no bet | Bayern München | 94% | 1.07 | 1.04 | 93% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 | 1.67 | 56% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 46% | 2.18 | 2.10 | 44% | +2 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.