Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund
The model leans Borussia Dortmund at 40%. Expected goals: Hoffenheim 1.66, Borussia Dortmund 1.89. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 70%. Hoffenheim won 3 of their last 5; Borussia Dortmund won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hoffenheim | 33% | 2.99 | 2.88 | 33% | +1 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.21 | 3.90 | 24% | 0 |
| 2Borussia Dortmund | 43% | 2.34 | 2.20 | 43% | 0 |
Pick: Borussia Dortmund. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.66 – 1.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–19.0%12.5%
- 1–28.5%–
- 2–17.5%9.1%
- 2–27.1%9.1%
- 0–15.4%–
- 1–35.4%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hoffenheim 0| Hoffenheim line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 17% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 22% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Hoffenheim +0.25 | 51% | 1.96 | 1.85 | 52% | −1 |
| Asian handicap | Borussia Dortmund -0.25 | 49% | 2.04 | 2.00 | 48% | +1 |
| Draw no bet | Hoffenheim | 44% | 2.28 | 2.10 | 44% | 0 |
| Draw no bet | Borussia Dortmund | 56% | 1.78 | 1.67 | 56% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 | 1.40 | 66% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 31% | 3.20 | 2.75 | 34% | −3 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.