Sample analysis
The exact page members saw before kick-off — now with the final score.
This analysis was published before the match on October 18, 2026; it finished 4–1. Members get the same page for every match across 15 leagues, before kick-off.
LaLigaFinishedWon
Real Madrid – Sevilla
Real Madrid4
Sevilla1- 1Real Madrid
- 76%
- Market 1.25 · −1
- XDraw
- 16%
- Market 7.00 · +2
- 2Sevilla
- 8%
- Market 9.50 · −2
- Exp. goals (home)
- 2.62
- Exp. goals (away)
- 0.80
- Market implied
- 76%@1.25
- Edge vs market
- −1 pt
Assessment for this match
Model, market and our own record, judged separately for each market. A status describes the evidence, not a new win probability.
- Match result (1X2)Real MadridEvidence insufficient
- Model
- 76%
- calibrated 77%
- Market
- 76%
- @1.25 · latest
- Record
- 56%
- 9/16 · gap −5…0 pts · league
Similar picks hit 9/16 (56%), but the 95% range (33–77%) neither clears the 55% bar nor rules the pick out.
Market price older than 24 h.
- Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Evidence insufficient
- Model
- 66%
- calibrated 59%
- Market
- –
- no price captured
- Record
- 71%
- 17/24 · model 60–70% · league
Similar picks hit 17/24 (71%), but the 95% range (51–85%) neither clears the 65% bar nor rules the pick out.
No bookmaker price captured.
- Both teams to scoreBTTS YesEvidence insufficient
- Model
- 52%
- calibrated 50%
- Market
- 52%
- Record
- 53%
- 26/49 · model 50–60% · league
Similar picks hit 26/49 (53%), but the 95% range (39–66%) neither clears the 65% bar nor rules the pick out.
Historical evidence analysis
What the stored model, the calibration curve, the bookmaker price and comparable past matches say about each selection, side by side. Figures are computed by code from recorded data; nothing here is a new win probability.
- Match result (1X2)Real MadridEvidence insufficient
- Model
- 76%
- calibrated 77%
- Bookmaker
- 76%
- latest · Sun, Oct 18, 09:11
- Similar matches
- 90%
- 18/20 · 95% 70–97%
- Real Madrid at home
- –
- too few matches
- Sevilla away
- –
- too few matches
- In 20 comparable matches the selection came in 90% of the time (95% 70–97%); the model's 76% sits inside that range. Because neighbours are chosen by the model's own expected goals, this is a calibration check, not independent evidence.
- Real Madrid's home record in the pool is thin (5 matches, fewer than 10); no rate is shown.
- Sevilla's away record in the pool is thin (6 matches, fewer than 10); no rate is shown.
- Model 76% and bookmaker 76% are within 5 points of each other.
- Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5Evidence insufficient
- Model
- 66%
- calibrated 59%
- Bookmaker
- –
- no price recorded
- Similar matches
- 70%
- 14/20 · 95% 48–85%
- Real Madrid at home
- –
- too few matches
- Sevilla away
- –
- too few matches
- In 20 comparable matches the selection came in 70% of the time (95% 48–85%); the model's 66% sits inside that range. Because neighbours are chosen by the model's own expected goals, this is a calibration check, not independent evidence.
- Real Madrid's home record in the pool is thin (5 matches, fewer than 10); no rate is shown.
- Sevilla's away record in the pool is thin (6 matches, fewer than 10); no rate is shown.
- No bookmaker price was recorded for this match, so the model cannot be compared with the market.
- Both teams to scoreBTTS YesEvidence insufficient
- Model
- 52%
- calibrated 50%
- Bookmaker
- 52%
- latest · –
- Similar matches
- 55%
- 11/20 · 95% 34–74%
- Real Madrid at home
- –
- too few matches
- Sevilla away
- –
- too few matches
- In 20 comparable matches the selection came in 55% of the time (95% 34–74%); the model's 52% sits inside that range. Because neighbours are chosen by the model's own expected goals, this is a calibration check, not independent evidence.
- Real Madrid's home record in the pool is thin (5 matches, fewer than 10); no rate is shown.
- Sevilla's away record in the pool is thin (6 matches, fewer than 10); no rate is shown.
- Model 52% and bookmaker 52% are within 5 points of each other.
Teams' own history (in the pool)
- Real Madrid at home
- 5 matches · Jul 28–Oct 10 · home 80% / draw 20% / away 0% · over 2.5 80% · BTTS 60%
- model average in these matches: home 74% / draw 16% / away 10%
- Sevilla away
- 6 matches · Jul 31–Oct 12 · home 17% / draw 33% / away 50% · over 2.5 67% · BTTS 83%
- model average in these matches: home 46% / draw 27% / away 27%
Comparable past matches
nearest by the model's expected goals (2.62 / 0.80) · radius 0.35 · scope: covered leagues (this league had too few) · 20 of 20 within radius
20 matches · Jul 18–Oct 17 · home 90% / draw 10% / away 0% · over 2.5 70% · BTTS 55%
model average in these matches: home 75% / draw 16% / away 8%
- Aug 31 Benfica – Estoril2–1 · λ 2.69/0.83 · d 0.12
- Aug 10 Flamengo – Vitoria2–0 · λ 2.53/0.78 · d 0.13
- Jul 18 Viking – Sandefjord2–1 · λ 2.64/0.88 · d 0.14
- Sep 5 Manchester City – Coventry City1–0 · λ 2.70/0.69 · d 0.20
- Aug 14 Galatasaray – Çorum FK2–2 · λ 2.68/0.68 · d 0.20
- Aug 23 AGF – OB2–2 · λ 2.50/0.87 · d 0.21
- Aug 22 Inter – Monza4–1 · λ 2.69/0.67 · d 0.23
- Aug 30 Manchester United – Ipswich Town5–2 · λ 2.46/0.86 · d 0.25
Not available
- xG: not part of the live model (dc-2.0-xg is a shadow version); no timestamped per-match history, so not computed.
- Elo: research only; no per-match pre-match snapshot in the database, so not computed.
- Comparable matches were drawn from all covered leagues because this league had too few within the radius.
- Home team's home record: 5 matches, below 10.
- Away team's away record: 6 matches, below 10.
Model breakdown
The pick is Real Madrid win at a calibrated 77% (raw model 76%). Expected goals 2.62–0.80. The model's probability sits 1 points below the market's implied price at latest odds (Bet365_Spain). Odds movement (3 snapshots): Real Madrid 1.22 → 1.25 (−1 pts). No notable movement since opening. Real Madrid won 3 of their last 5; Sevilla won 1 of their last 5.
Where this match sits in our record
For each market, the bucket this match falls into and our past hit rate in that bucket. The marker is the past hit rate; the 50 and 65 lines are thresholds. Not a guarantee, a record of what happened in the same situation.
edge vs market −5…0 pts · LaLiga: 9/16 hit (56%)
model level ≥70% · all leagues: 73/95 hit (77%)
model level 60–70% · LaLiga: 17/24 hit (71%)
1X2 disagreement <5 pts · all leagues: 46/70 hit (66%)
model level 50–60% · LaLiga: 26/49 hit (53%)
edge vs market −5…0 pts · all leagues: 80/135 hit (59%)
Bucket edges and the full tables are on the record page. Open the record
Match result (1X2)
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Madrid | 76% | 1.32 | 1.25 | 76% | −1 |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.23 | 7.00 | 14% | +2 |
| 2Sevilla | 8% | 12.00 | 9.50 | 10% | −2 |
Pick: Real Madrid. Calibrated probability 77% (raw model output 76%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: covered, 1,098 matches, fitted Oct 19. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points. In our record a positive edge has not been in our favour: when the model sat 5+ points above the market, picks landed about 30%; within −5…+1 points, 50–56%. The market's number is the better-calibrated one. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 2–011.3%13.3%
- 3–09.9%11.8%
- 2–19.0%10.5%
- 1–08.6%10.0%
- 3–17.8%10.0%
- 1–16.9%7.7%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
| Real Madrid line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| -1 | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| -0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| 0 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Real Madrid -1.75 | 50% | 2.02 | 1.83 | 53% | −3 |
| Asian handicap | Sevilla +1.75 | 50% | 1.98 | 2.03 | 47% | +3 |
| Draw no bet | Real Madrid | 90% | 1.11 | 1.08 | 88% | +2 |
| Draw no bet | Sevilla | 10% | 10.08 | 8.00 | 12% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 | 1.80 | 52% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 49% | 2.04 | 1.95 | 48% | +1 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation. The edge column is model minus market: +5 points or more is shown in red — in our record, picks landed less often when the model sat this far above the market (1X2 30%, BTTS 48%, O/U 36%).
Absences & line-ups
No absence or line-up data for this match yet; it arrives within 48 hours of kick-off.
Source: API-Football. Absences are informational; the model does not account for them yet.
Model
- Version
- dc-1.0
- Poisson 1X2
- 76% / 15% / 9%
- Published
- Mon, Oct 19, 00:20
- Status
- Finished · Settled
The headline 1X2 figures come from the Dixon-Coles fit, which corrects low-scoring draws. The Poisson grid on this page does not apply that correction, so its 1X2 split can differ by a point or two.
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