Real Betis
Real Madrid
The model leans Real Madrid at 50%. Expected goals: Real Betis 1.29, Real Madrid 1.90. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%. Real Betis won 3 of their last 6; Real Madrid won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Betis | 25% | 3.99 | 6.25 | 15% | +10 |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.10 | 5.25 | 18% | +6 |
| 2Real Madrid | 51% | 1.98 | 1.42 | 67% | −16 |
Pick: Real Madrid. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 1.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–110.1%9.1%
- 1–29.6%–
- 0–17.8%–
- 0–27.4%–
- 2–16.5%11.8%
- 2–26.2%6.7%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Madrid −0.5| Real Betis line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 15% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| +0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| +1 | 48% | 22% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Real Betis +1.25 | 67% | 1.49 | 1.93 | 50% | +17 |
| Asian handicap | Real Madrid -1.25 | 33% | 3.03 | 1.93 | 50% | −17 |
| Draw no bet | Real Betis | 33% | 3.02 | 4.50 | 21% | +12 |
| Draw no bet | Real Madrid | 67% | 1.50 | 1.18 | 79% | −12 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 | 1.50 | 63% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 38% | 2.61 | 2.50 | 38% | +1 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.