Espanyol
Sevilla
The model leans Espanyol at 38%. Expected goals: Espanyol 1.28, Sevilla 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%. Espanyol won 2 of their last 6; Sevilla won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Espanyol | 40% | 2.49 | 2.25 | 42% | −2 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.28 | 3.20 | 30% | +1 |
| 2Sevilla | 29% | 3.40 | 3.40 | 28% | +1 |
Pick: Espanyol. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 7,169 matches, fitted Aug 31. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.28 – 1.06 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–113.1%16.7%
- 1–012.3%15.4%
- 0–110.2%11.8%
- 0–09.7%14.3%
- 2–18.4%10.5%
- 2–07.9%10.5%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Espanyol 0| Espanyol line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 23% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Espanyol -0.25 | 48% | 2.08 | 1.93 | 50% | −2 |
| Asian handicap | Sevilla +0.25 | 52% | 1.93 | 1.93 | 50% | +2 |
| Draw no bet | Espanyol | 58% | 1.73 | 1.53 | 61% | −3 |
| Draw no bet | Sevilla | 42% | 2.37 | 2.38 | 39% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 | 2.00 | 47% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 53% | 1.89 | 1.75 | 53% | 0 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.