Manchester City
Coventry City
The model leans Manchester City at 69%. Expected goals: Manchester City 2.70, Coventry City 0.69. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 53%. Manchester City won 3 of their last 5; Coventry City won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester City | 79% | 1.27 | 1.14 | 83% | −4 |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.88 | 8.50 | 11% | +3 |
| 2Coventry City | 6% | 15.46 | 15.00 | 6% | 0 |
Pick: Manchester City. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.70 – 0.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 2–012.3%12.5%
- 3–011.0%12.5%
- 1–09.1%8.3%
- 2–18.5%9.1%
- 3–17.7%8.3%
- 4–07.4%10.0%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manchester City −2| Manchester City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| -1 | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| -0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| 0 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Manchester City -2.25 | 41% | 2.41 | 1.93 | 50% | −9 |
| Asian handicap | Coventry City +2.25 | 59% | 1.71 | 1.93 | 50% | +9 |
| Draw no bet | Manchester City | 92% | 1.08 | 1.04 | 93% | 0 |
| Draw no bet | Coventry City | 8% | 13.21 | 13.00 | 7% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 | 1.95 | 48% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 53% | 1.88 | 1.80 | 52% | +1 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.