Benfica
v
Pending
Estoril
The model leans Benfica at 67%. Expected goals: Benfica 2.69, Estoril 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 53%.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default76
16
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Benfica | 76% | 1.31 | 1.08 | 86% | −10 |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.41 | 11.00 | 9% | +7 |
| 2Estoril | 8% | 12.00 | 17.00 | 6% | +3 |
Pick: Benfica. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.69 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.8%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Benfica −2| Benfica line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| -1 | 56% | 21% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.