Flamengo
Vitoria
The model leans Flamengo at 65%. Expected goals: Flamengo 2.53, Vitoria 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 51%. Flamengo won 2 of their last 3; Vitoria won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | 75% | 1.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Vitoria | 9% | 11.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Flamengo. Calibrated probability 65% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.53 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.7%
- 3–09.8%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Flamengo −1.5| Flamengo line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| -1 | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| -0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| 0 | 75% | 15% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.