Sevilla
Atlético Madrid
The model leans Atlético Madrid at 50%. Expected goals: Sevilla 1.09, Atlético Madrid 1.86. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%. Sevilla won 3 of their last 4; Atlético Madrid won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sevilla | 21% | 4.78 | 4.10 | 23% | −2 |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.05 | 3.50 | 27% | −2 |
| 2Atlético Madrid | 54% | 1.84 | 1.91 | 50% | +5 |
Pick: Atlético Madrid. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.09 – 1.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.7%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–36.1%
- 2–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atlético Madrid −0.5| Sevilla line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 24% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.