Derby County
West Bromwich Albion
The model leans Derby County at 39%. Expected goals: Derby County 1.39, West Bromwich Albion 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Derby County won 1 of their last 6; West Bromwich Albion won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Derby County | 42% | 2.38 | 3.00 | 31% | +11 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.42 | 3.25 | 29% | +1 |
| 2West Bromwich Albion | 29% | 3.47 | 2.30 | 40% | −12 |
Pick: Derby County. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Raw model output and calibrated probability are different things: the raw figure is what the model produced, the calibrated one is what past results say that raw figure has actually delivered. Calibration curve: all, 8,453 matches, fitted Sep 7. Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 1.11 · derived from expected goals| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–112.7%16.7%
- 1–011.4%10.0%
- 0–19.1%–
- 2–18.8%9.1%
- 0–08.2%10.0%
- 2–07.9%8.3%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
stored: Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Derby County 0| Derby County line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Derby County +0.25 | 65% | 1.53 | 1.80 | 53% | +12 |
| Asian handicap | West Bromwich Albion -0.25 | 35% | 2.88 | 2.05 | 47% | −12 |
| Draw no bet | Derby County | 59% | 1.69 | 2.10 | 44% | +15 |
| Draw no bet | West Bromwich Albion | 41% | 2.46 | 1.67 | 56% | −15 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 | 1.73 | 54% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 50% | 2.01 | 2.00 | 46% | +3 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.