West Ham United
Derby County
The model leans West Ham United at 57%. Expected goals: West Ham United 2.26, Derby County 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%. West Ham United won 3 of their last 6; Derby County won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Ham United | 66% | 1.52 | 1.39 | 66% | −1 |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.89 | 4.75 | 19% | +1 |
| 2Derby County | 14% | 7.20 | 6.50 | 14% | 0 |
Pick: West Ham United. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.26 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 2–010.2%14.3%
- 2–19.8%11.8%
- 1–09.0%13.3%
- 1–18.7%11.1%
- 3–07.7%10.5%
- 3–17.4%8.3%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: West Ham United −1| West Ham United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| -1 | 43% | 23% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 19% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | West Ham United -1.25 | 49% | 2.04 | 1.93 | 50% | −1 |
| Asian handicap | Derby County +1.25 | 51% | 1.96 | 1.93 | 50% | +1 |
| Draw no bet | West Ham United | 83% | 1.21 | 1.14 | 83% | 0 |
| Draw no bet | Derby County | 17% | 5.73 | 5.50 | 17% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 | 1.83 | 50% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 45% | 2.24 | 1.83 | 50% | −5 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.