West Bromwich Albion
Watford
The model leans West Bromwich Albion at 43%. Expected goals: West Bromwich Albion 1.40, Watford 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 54%. West Bromwich Albion won 3 of their last 6; Watford won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1West Bromwich Albion | 47% | 2.14 | 1.81 | 51% | −4 |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | 3.60 | 26% | +4 |
| 2Watford | 23% | 4.27 | 4.00 | 23% | 0 |
Pick: West Bromwich Albion. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.40 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–013.8%13.3%
- 1–112.7%15.4%
- 0–09.9%9.1%
- 2–09.6%11.1%
- 0–19.1%8.3%
- 2–18.8%11.8%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: West Bromwich Albion −0.5| West Bromwich Albion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | West Bromwich Albion -0.5 | 48% | 2.08 | 1.88 | 51% | −3 |
| Asian handicap | Watford +0.5 | 52% | 1.93 | 1.98 | 49% | +3 |
| Draw no bet | West Bromwich Albion | 67% | 1.50 | 1.36 | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet | Watford | 33% | 3.00 | 3.00 | 31% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 | 1.73 | 54% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 55% | 1.82 | 2.00 | 46% | +8 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.