Stoke City
Charlton Athletic
The model leans Stoke City at 37%. Expected goals: Stoke City 1.13, Charlton Athletic 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%. Stoke City won 1 of their last 6; Charlton Athletic won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stoke City | 40% | 2.51 | 2.05 | 45% | −5 |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.02 | 3.25 | 28% | +5 |
| 2Charlton Athletic | 27% | 3.68 | 3.50 | 26% | +1 |
Pick: Stoke City. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–015.1%10.0%
- 0–013.4%11.1%
- 1–113.3%16.7%
- 0–111.8%–
- 2–08.5%10.5%
- 2–17.5%7.7%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Stoke City 0| Stoke City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| -1 | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 30% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 19% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Stoke City -0.25 | 48% | 2.06 | 1.83 | 53% | −4 |
| Asian handicap | Charlton Athletic +0.25 | 52% | 1.94 | 2.03 | 47% | +4 |
| Draw no bet | Stoke City | 59% | 1.68 | 1.50 | 63% | −3 |
| Draw no bet | Charlton Athletic | 41% | 2.47 | 2.50 | 38% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.52 | 1.83 | 50% | −10 |
| Both teams to score | No | 60% | 1.66 | 1.83 | 50% | +10 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.