Portsmouth
Cardiff City
The model leans Cardiff City at 50%. Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.13, Cardiff City 1.78. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Portsmouth won 1 of their last 6; Cardiff City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portsmouth | 23% | 4.36 | 2.32 | 40% | −17 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.92 | 3.40 | 27% | −2 |
| 2Cardiff City | 52% | 1.94 | 2.85 | 33% | +19 |
Pick: Cardiff City. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.13 – 1.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–111.0%15.4%
- 1–29.8%–
- 0–19.7%–
- 0–28.7%–
- 2–16.2%9.1%
- 1–06.2%8.3%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cardiff City −0.5| Portsmouth line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 15% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| +0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| +1 | 47% | 23% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Portsmouth -0.25 | 27% | 3.67 | 2.05 | 47% | −20 |
| Asian handicap | Cardiff City +0.25 | 73% | 1.37 | 1.80 | 53% | +20 |
| Draw no bet | Portsmouth | 31% | 3.25 | 1.67 | 56% | −25 |
| Draw no bet | Cardiff City | 69% | 1.45 | 2.10 | 44% | +25 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 | 1.57 | 59% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 44% | 2.28 | 2.25 | 41% | +3 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.