Lincoln City
Southampton
The model leans Lincoln City at 46%. Expected goals: Lincoln City 1.72, Southampton 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Lincoln City won 3 of their last 6; Southampton won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lincoln City | 48% | 2.06 | 4.20 | 22% | +26 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | 3.80 | 25% | +1 |
| 2Southampton | 26% | 3.92 | 1.76 | 53% | −28 |
Pick: Lincoln City. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.72 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–111.2%14.3%
- 2–19.6%–
- 1–09.3%6.7%
- 2–08.0%–
- 1–26.7%11.8%
- 0–16.5%11.8%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lincoln City −0.5| Lincoln City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 24% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Lincoln City +0.75 | 80% | 1.25 | 1.80 | 53% | +26 |
| Asian handicap | Southampton -0.75 | 20% | 4.92 | 2.05 | 47% | −26 |
| Draw no bet | Lincoln City | 66% | 1.53 | 3.25 | 29% | +36 |
| Draw no bet | Southampton | 34% | 2.90 | 1.33 | 71% | −36 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 | 1.62 | 58% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 43% | 2.34 | 2.20 | 42% | 0 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.