Stoke City
Norwich City
The model leans Norwich City at 38%. Expected goals: Stoke City 1.01, Norwich City 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Stoke City won 1 of their last 6; Norwich City won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stoke City | 28% | 3.52 | 3.40 | 28% | +1 |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.23 | 3.50 | 27% | +4 |
| 2Norwich City | 41% | 2.46 | 2.05 | 46% | −5 |
Pick: Norwich City. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%
- 0–113.0%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–010.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–28.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Stoke City 0| Stoke City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 19% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.