NEC Nijmegen
Feyenoord
The model leans NEC Nijmegen at 41%. Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 2.11, Feyenoord 1.83. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 75%. NEC Nijmegen won 3 of their last 6; Feyenoord won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1NEC Nijmegen | 44% | 2.25 | 2.80 | 34% | +11 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.51 | 3.90 | 24% | −2 |
| 2Feyenoord | 33% | 3.00 | 2.25 | 42% | −9 |
Pick: NEC Nijmegen. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.11 – 1.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes74% | No26% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 2–17.9%8.3%
- 1–17.5%11.8%
- 2–27.2%10.0%
- 1–26.9%10.0%
- 3–15.6%–
- 3–25.1%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: NEC Nijmegen −0.5| NEC Nijmegen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 19% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 21% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 17% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | NEC Nijmegen +0.25 | 62% | 1.61 | 1.80 | 53% | +9 |
| Asian handicap | Feyenoord -0.25 | 38% | 2.63 | 2.00 | 47% | −9 |
| Draw no bet | NEC Nijmegen | 57% | 1.75 | 2.10 | 44% | +13 |
| Draw no bet | Feyenoord | 43% | 2.33 | 1.67 | 56% | −13 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.36 | 1.33 | 71% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 26% | 3.81 | 3.25 | 29% | −3 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.