Hørsholm Usserød IK
Næsby
The model leans Næsby at 51%. Expected goals: Hørsholm Usserød IK 1.68, Næsby 2.70. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 77%. Hørsholm Usserød IK won 2 of their last 6; Næsby won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hørsholm Usserød IK | 22% | 4.46 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Næsby | 59% | 1.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Næsby. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.68 – 2.70| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 64% | 36% |
| Both teams to score | Yes76% | No24% |
Most likely scores
- 1–27.7%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–35.8%
- 1–15.7%
- 2–14.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Næsby −1| Hørsholm Usserød IK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 12% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 18% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 20% | 40% |
| +1.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.