Ishøj IF
Næsby
The model leans Næsby at 69%. Expected goals: Ishøj IF 1.17, Næsby 3.46. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 67%. Ishøj IF won 0 of their last 5; Næsby won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ishøj IF | 8% | 12.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Næsby | 80% | 1.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Næsby. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.17 – 3.46| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 68% | 32% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–38.0%
- 1–26.9%
- 1–46.9%
- 0–36.8%
- 0–25.9%
- 0–45.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Næsby −2| Ishøj IF line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 6% | 91% |
| -0.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| 0 | 9% | 11% | 80% |
| +0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| +1 | 20% | 17% | 63% |
| +1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.