Predictions · 3. Division · outside model coverage

Ishøj IF

15
Won

Næsby

The model leans Næsby at 69%. Expected goals: Ishøj IF 1.17, Næsby 3.46. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 67%. Ishøj IF won 0 of their last 5; Næsby won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Ishøj IF8%12.11
XDraw12%8.32
2Næsby80%1.25

Pick: Næsby. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 92%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.17 – 3.46
LineOverUnder
1.594%6%
2.584%16%
3.568%32%
Both teams to scoreYes67%No33%

Most likely scores

  • 138.0%
  • 126.9%
  • 146.9%
  • 036.8%
  • 025.9%
  • 045.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Næsby −2
Ishøj IF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.53%97%
-13%6%91%
-0.59%91%
09%11%80%
+0.520%80%
+120%17%63%
+1.537%63%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.