Predictions · 3. Division · outside model coverage

Vanløse IF

30
Lost

Næsby

The model leans Næsby at 39%. Expected goals: Vanløse IF 1.32, Næsby 1.59. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. Vanløse IF won 2 of their last 6; Næsby won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Vanløse IF31%3.26
XDraw27%3.74
2Næsby43%2.35

Pick: Næsby. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.32 – 1.59
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.556%44%
3.533%67%
Both teams to scoreYes58%No42%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.4%
  • 129.1%
  • 018.7%
  • 217.6%
  • 107.2%
  • 026.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Vanløse IF 0
Vanløse IF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%18%68%
-0.532%68%
032%24%44%
+0.556%44%
+156%22%22%
+1.578%22%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.