Næsby
Sundby BK
The model leans Næsby at 55%. Expected goals: Næsby 2.72, Sundby BK 1.46. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 72%. Næsby won 3 of their last 6; Sundby BK won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Næsby | 64% | 1.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Sundby BK | 18% | 5.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: Næsby. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.72 – 1.46| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–16.1%
- 2–26.0%
- 2–05.6%
- 3–25.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Næsby −1| Næsby line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 20% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 17% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 11% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.