Holbæk B&I
Næsby
The model leans Holbæk B&I at 47%. Expected goals: Holbæk B&I 2.42, Næsby 1.90. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 78%. Holbæk B&I won 6 of their last 6; Næsby won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Holbæk B&I | 49% | 2.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Næsby | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Holbæk B&I. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.42 – 1.90| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 63% | 37% |
| Both teams to score | Yes78% | No22% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–16.1%
- 3–16.0%
- 1–25.8%
- 3–25.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 62%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Holbæk B&I −0.5| Holbæk B&I line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 19% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 19% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 15% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.