Predictions · 3. Division Relegation Group · outside model coverage
Holbæk B&I
1–0
Won
Vejgaard
The model leans Holbæk B&I at 69%. Expected goals: Holbæk B&I 3.13, Vejgaard 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 59%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match79
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Holbæk B&I | 79% | 1.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Vejgaard | 8% | 13.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Holbæk B&I. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.13 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 3–08.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–18.3%
- 2–17.9%
- 4–06.7%
- 4–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Holbæk B&I −2| Holbæk B&I line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| -1 | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| -0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| 0 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.