Predictions · 3. Division · outside model coverage

Holbæk B&I

21
Won

Sundby BK

The model leans Holbæk B&I at 55%. Expected goals: Holbæk B&I 2.60, Sundby BK 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 69%. Holbæk B&I won 6 of their last 6; Sundby BK won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Holbæk B&I64%1.57
XDraw19%5.31
2Sundby BK17%5.76

Pick: Holbæk B&I. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.60 – 1.34
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.575%25%
3.555%45%
Both teams to scoreYes68%No32%

Most likely scores

  • 218.8%
  • 317.6%
  • 116.8%
  • 206.6%
  • 225.9%
  • 305.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Holbæk B&I −1
Holbæk B&I lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.544%56%
-144%21%36%
-0.564%36%
064%18%18%
+0.582%18%
+182%11%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.