Holbæk B&I
Sundby BK
The model leans Holbæk B&I at 55%. Expected goals: Holbæk B&I 2.60, Sundby BK 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 69%. Holbæk B&I won 6 of their last 6; Sundby BK won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Holbæk B&I | 64% | 1.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.31 | – | – | – |
| 2Sundby BK | 17% | 5.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Holbæk B&I. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.60 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–25.9%
- 3–05.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Holbæk B&I −1| Holbæk B&I line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 21% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 11% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.