Predictions · 3. Division · outside model coverage

Brønshøj

14
Won

Holbæk B&I

The model leans Holbæk B&I at 50%. Expected goals: Brønshøj 1.61, Holbæk B&I 2.37. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%. Brønshøj won 2 of their last 6; Holbæk B&I won 6 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Brønshøj25%3.99
XDraw21%4.78
2Holbæk B&I54%1.85

Pick: Holbæk B&I. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.61 – 2.37
LineOverUnder
1.591%9%
2.576%24%
3.556%44%
Both teams to scoreYes72%No28%

Most likely scores

  • 128.5%
  • 117.1%
  • 226.8%
  • 136.7%
  • 215.7%
  • 235.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Holbæk B&I −0.5
Brønshøj lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.512%88%
-112%14%74%
-0.526%74%
026%20%55%
+0.545%55%
+145%20%34%
+1.566%34%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.