Predictions · 3. Division · outside model coverage

Hørsholm Usserød IK

02
Lost

Brønshøj

The model leans Hørsholm Usserød IK at 39%. Expected goals: Hørsholm Usserød IK 2.01, Brønshøj 1.86. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 74%. Hørsholm Usserød IK won 2 of their last 6; Brønshøj won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Hørsholm Usserød IK42%2.40
XDraw23%4.43
2Brønshøj36%2.79

Pick: Hørsholm Usserød IK. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.01 – 1.86
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.574%26%
3.554%46%
Both teams to scoreYes73%No27%

Most likely scores

  • 217.8%
  • 117.8%
  • 227.3%
  • 127.2%
  • 315.3%
  • 324.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Hørsholm Usserød IK 0
Hørsholm Usserød IK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.524%76%
-124%19%58%
-0.542%58%
042%21%37%
+0.563%37%
+163%17%19%
+1.581%19%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.