Hørsholm Usserød IK
Nordsjælland
The model leans Nordsjælland at 70%. Expected goals: Hørsholm Usserød IK 0.93, Nordsjælland 3.29. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 59%. Hørsholm Usserød IK won 2 of their last 6; Nordsjælland won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hørsholm Usserød IK | 7% | 15.38 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Nordsjælland | 82% | 1.22 | – | – | – |
Pick: Nordsjælland. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 82%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.93 – 3.29| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 61% | 39% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 0–38.8%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–47.2%
- 1–46.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 54%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Nordsjælland −2| Hørsholm Usserød IK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 5% | 93% |
| -0.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| 0 | 7% | 11% | 82% |
| +0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| +1 | 18% | 17% | 65% |
| +1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.