Predictions · 3. Division · outside model coverage

Frem

11
Lost

Hørsholm Usserød IK

The model leans Frem at 50%. Expected goals: Frem 2.11, Hørsholm Usserød IK 1.45. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%. Frem won 0 of their last 6; Hørsholm Usserød IK won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Frem52%1.93
XDraw23%4.41
2Hørsholm Usserød IK26%3.92

Pick: Frem. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.11 – 1.45
LineOverUnder
1.587%13%
2.569%31%
3.548%52%
Both teams to scoreYes67%No33%

Most likely scores

  • 219.2%
  • 118.7%
  • 226.7%
  • 316.4%
  • 126.3%
  • 206.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Frem −0.5
Frem lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.531%69%
-131%21%47%
-0.553%47%
053%21%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%15%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.