Predictions · 3. Division · outside model coverage

Holbæk B&I

21
Won

Frem

The model leans Holbæk B&I at 57%. Expected goals: Holbæk B&I 2.55, Frem 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 66%. Holbæk B&I won 6 of their last 6; Frem won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Holbæk B&I65%1.53
XDraw19%5.29
2Frem16%6.33

Pick: Holbæk B&I. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.55 – 1.22
LineOverUnder
1.589%11%
2.573%27%
3.552%48%
Both teams to scoreYes65%No35%

Most likely scores

  • 219.2%
  • 317.8%
  • 207.5%
  • 117.2%
  • 306.4%
  • 105.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Holbæk B&I −1.5
Holbæk B&I lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.545%55%
-145%21%34%
-0.566%34%
066%17%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%10%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.