Predictions · 3. Division · outside model coverage

Sundby BK

44
Lost

Hørsholm Usserød IK

The model leans Sundby BK at 51%. Expected goals: Sundby BK 2.32, Hørsholm Usserød IK 1.49. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 70%. Sundby BK won 0 of their last 6; Hørsholm Usserød IK won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Sundby BK55%1.80
XDraw21%4.71
2Hørsholm Usserød IK23%4.28

Pick: Sundby BK. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.32 – 1.49
LineOverUnder
1.589%11%
2.573%27%
3.553%47%
Both teams to scoreYes70%No30%

Most likely scores

  • 218.9%
  • 117.7%
  • 316.9%
  • 226.6%
  • 206.0%
  • 125.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Sundby BK −1
Sundby BK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.535%65%
-135%21%44%
-0.556%44%
056%20%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%13%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.