Næsby
Brønshøj
The model leans Næsby at 61%. Expected goals: Næsby 3.03, Brønshøj 1.44. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 73%. Næsby won 3 of their last 6; Brønshøj won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Næsby | 69% | 1.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Brønshøj | 15% | 6.74 | – | – | – |
Pick: Næsby. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 69%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.03 – 1.44| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 65% | 35% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 3–17.7%
- 2–17.6%
- 4–15.8%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–25.5%
- 3–05.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Næsby −1.5| Næsby line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| -1 | 50% | 19% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 15% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 9% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.